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The Probability of Success

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The Probability of Success

In a week, I will have willingly given up a steady monthly income and taken on the unavoidable uncertainty and incalculable risk of building a small business with my partner.

One week, or 7 days, or 168 hours, or 10,080 minutes, from now… 🔗

Chances are…

  • My mind will be full of possibility, even the sky is not the limit.
  • My heart will be full of ease and tension, shaken not stirred.
  • My body will be fuller than ever, allowing growth from within.
  • My calendar will be full of space, ready to be molded as I see fit.

Chances are good that when I read this a week from today, I will find myself nodding in agreement. And if I had to quantify “good” in this case, I would say that in 9 out of 10 universes, these sensations will be spot on—I’m 90% sure.

I ought to report back in a week.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 🔗

Probability, chance, luck have all been on my mind. How do we navigate uncertainty? (What is uncertainty? A 50% chance? Something lower? Something higher?) How do we make important decisions with limited information with a real inability to predict the future?

Here are three strategies that come to mind for increasing your probabilities, chances, and luck:

  1. Wait as long as possible, giving the situation as much time as possible to unfold. This strategy increases the probability you will have critical information that should impact your decision.
  2. Keep your attention on potential outcomes with higher probabilities. This strategy helps you account for fear, specifically, to help prevent catastrophizing, where you focus on the most devastating (and often, the least likely) of the outcomes.
  3. Take action to improve the probability of your desired outcome (sometimes talked about as “increasing your surface area for luck”). Going to more networking events increases your chances of meeting a future collaborator, employer, or friend. Brainstorm ways to do something about a lower probability outcome or event to make it higher probability.